Evergreen Growth & Marketing - B2B LinkedIn Ads Agency

    LinkedIn Matched Audiences vs Predictive Audiences: When to Use Each

    LinkedIn retired Lookalike Audiences in February 2024 and Predictive Audiences took their place. Here's how the two audience types compare, and how I use each one for niche B2B without losing control of who sees the ads.

    📚 This guide is part of our comprehensive LinkedIn List Upload Tutorial. Start there for the complete overview.

    Your source audience is only as good as the file behind it. Use the LinkedIn company list template so matching has a fair chance.

    What Happened to LinkedIn Lookalike Audiences?

    LinkedIn retired Lookalike Audiences in February 2024. If you go looking for the option in Campaign Manager now, you won't find it. Predictive Audiences replaced them.

    Before February 2024

    Lookalike Audiences

    Built a wider audience of members who resembled your source list.

    Now

    Predictive Audiences

    LinkedIn's AI uses a seed source to find similar members who are likely to take the same action.

    Matched Audiences didn't change. Everything below about company lists, contact lists and retargeting still works the same way.

    Matched vs Predictive Audiences at a Glance

     Matched AudiencesPredictive Audiences
    What it isThe exact companies, contacts or visitors you give LinkedInSimilar members LinkedIn's AI finds from your seed
    What it needsA company or contact list, or the Insight Tag for retargetingA seed source with at least 300 members in total
    ControlHigh. You choose who sees the adsLower. LinkedIn decides who looks similar
    Best forNiche B2B, named accounts, ABM, retargetingScaling beyond your list once you have good signal
    RisksSmall audiences, poor match rates from messy filesA weak seed finds more of the wrong people, and it can eat your core budget

    The short version: Matched Audiences give you control. Predictive Audiences give you reach. For niche B2B, I'd always start with control.

    What Are LinkedIn Matched Audiences?

    Matched Audiences let you upload a list of companies or contacts and target LinkedIn members associated with them. It's the foundation of account-based marketing on LinkedIn, and for most of the niche B2B firms I work with, it's the core of the account.

    Types of Matched Audiences

    1. Company lists

    Upload a CSV of company names and domains. LinkedIn matches them to company pages so you can reach their employees.

    2. Contact lists

    Upload email addresses to reach specific people. Match rates are usually lower than company lists.

    3. Website retargeting

    Reach people who visited your website. Needs the LinkedIn Insight Tag.

    4. Engagement retargeting

    Reach people who watched your videos or engaged with your ads on LinkedIn.

    What Are LinkedIn Predictive Audiences?

    A Predictive Audience starts with a seed source. LinkedIn's AI studies that seed and finds similar members who are likely to take the same action. The seed needs at least 300 members in total.

    What you can use as a seed

    Contact or company list

    Must show "ready" status in Campaign Manager.

    Lead Gen Form

    People who filled in one of your LinkedIn forms.

    Retargeting audience

    Website visitors, or people who engaged with you on LinkedIn.

    Conversion audience

    Built from the Insight Tag, website actions or the Conversions API.

    The seed is everything. Give LinkedIn a list of real conversions or qualified leads and it has something worth copying. Give it everyone who clicked an ad and it will happily find you more people who click ads.

    Predictive Audiences Are Not Audience Expansion

    People mix these up all the time. A Predictive Audience is an audience you build on purpose from a seed. Audience Expansion is a setting that widens the targeting you've already chosen. I switch Audience Expansion off for B2B, every time. It sends your budget to people outside the companies and roles you picked, and it's easy to miss.

    If you want to see what that setting can cost, read the £96k LinkedIn optimisation disaster and the other hidden LinkedIn traps I switch off in new accounts.

    When to Use Matched Audiences

    For niche B2B, matched company lists with job titles layered on top stay the core. That's where you control who sees the ads.

    Account-based marketing

    You have a defined list of target accounts and need the decision makers inside them.

    Retargeting website visitors

    Re-engage people who have already shown interest by visiting your site.

    Customer upsells and cross-sells

    Put new products or upgrades in front of existing customers.

    Closed-lost re-engagement

    Reconnect with prospects who didn't buy. Their timing may have changed.

    Event promotion

    Invite specific companies to webinars, trade shows or demos.

    When to Use Predictive Audiences

    Predictive Audiences are for scaling beyond your list once you have enough good signal. Until then, they're guessing.

    Your core list is working and you want more reach

    Your matched campaigns are producing real conversations and you want to find similar people outside the list.

    You have a seed of real conversions or qualified leads

    Ideally 300+ people who did the thing you actually want, not just people who clicked.

    You can give it its own budget

    You can afford a separate test without starving your core accounts.

    How I Run Both Together

    Separate campaigns, separate budgets. The predictive test can't eat the core targeting if it never shares a budget with it.

    Campaign A: Matched core

    • • Company list plus job titles or seniority
    • • Most of the budget
    • • Messaging written for those exact accounts

    Campaign B: Predictive test

    • • Seeded from conversions or qualified leads
    • • Its own, smaller budget
    • • Matched list excluded so you reach new people

    Judge it on pipeline

    Predictive campaigns often look good on cost per click. That tells you nothing. Check which companies the leads came from and whether any of them turned into real sales conversations. If they didn't, the cheap clicks were just cheap.

    This is the same structure I use in my LinkedIn Ads management: a controlled core of named accounts first, then tested reach on top.

    Common Mistakes to Avoid

    ❌ Seeding from everyone who clicked

    A seed of clickers teaches LinkedIn to find more clickers. Seed from conversions or qualified leads where you can.

    ❌ Running predictive in the same campaign as your core

    It shares the budget and quietly takes it from the accounts you care about most.

    ❌ Confusing it with Audience Expansion

    They're different things. Build Predictive Audiences on purpose, and switch Audience Expansion off.

    ❌ Using it too early

    Prove the message works on your matched list first. Scaling weak creative just spends more money faster.

    ❌ Not excluding your matched list

    Without the exclusion you'll pay twice to reach the same people.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What happened to LinkedIn Lookalike Audiences?▼

    LinkedIn retired Lookalike Audiences in February 2024. Predictive Audiences are the replacement. You give LinkedIn a seed source and its AI finds similar members who are likely to take the same action.

    Is Audience Expansion the same as Predictive Audiences?▼

    No. Predictive Audiences are an audience you build from a seed source. Audience Expansion is a campaign setting that widens the targeting you already chose. For B2B I switch Audience Expansion off, because it quietly pushes your ads to people outside the companies and roles you picked.

    What can I use as the seed for a Predictive Audience?▼

    A contact or company list with ready status, a Lead Gen Form, a retargeting audience (website visits or engagement on LinkedIn) or a conversion audience built from the Insight Tag, website actions or the Conversions API.

    How big does the seed audience need to be?▼

    The seed needs a minimum of 300 members in total. Size isn't the only thing that matters though. A seed of real conversions or qualified leads tells LinkedIn far more than a big list of everyone who clicked.

    Should I use Predictive Audiences for niche B2B?▼

    Not as your core. If your market is a few hundred or a few thousand named companies, a matched company list with job titles layered on top is where you control who sees the ads. Predictive is for scaling beyond that list once you have enough good signal.

    Should I run Predictive Audiences in the same campaign as my Matched Audience?▼

    No. Give the predictive test its own campaign and its own budget, so it can't eat the budget meant for your core accounts. Then judge it on pipeline, not cheap clicks.

    Can I combine Matched Audiences with other targeting?▼

    Yes, and you should. Layering job titles or seniority on top of a company list is how you reach the right people inside the right companies.

    Not Sure Which Strategy Is Right For You?

    I'll look at your target accounts, your data and your budget, and tell you which audiences are worth running.

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